Inflation trends UP

Below is the graph of Barclays TIPS bond fund which clearly shows that inflation excpectations continue to build up. TIPS are early birds of inflation expectations. Recent run up reaches some higher valuations and we can some technical correction to the downside given overbought conditions on daily graph. Anyway trend remains to the upside and weakness seems to be met with new fresh buying.

TRENDS – 25 July 2009

Short Term trends are subject of revision on daily basis after market close. medium term trends are revised on weekly basis after friday close.

Trends are based on my mechanical trend following system. They are NOT trading recommendations.

Natural Gas – Very Bullish Double Bottom

Natural Gas futures are forming extremely bullish DOUBLE BOTTOM formation on weekly chart. Natural gas futures were in contango lately due to never ending issuance of new shares of UNG ETF. Keep an eye of this energy future for some balistic moves in weeks ahead.

TRENDS – 28 June 2009

Markets are going in not very liquid summer season and we can expect to see some irrational behavior in those left trading instead walking on the beach

Previous trends post

Daily trends are subject of revision on daily basis after market close. Weekly trends are revised on weekly basis after friday close.

Trends are based on my mechanical trend following system. They are NOT trading recommendations.

BG TRENDS 26 June 2009

As requested i am starting  a new trend sheet related to Bulgarian stock market.

Bulgarian stock market is highly illiquid compared to western standards, but trends are  seen clearly IMO.

These are randomly selected stocks. For full list or any particular stock please contact me.

Daily trends are subject of revision on daily basis after market close. Weekly trends are revised on weekly basis after friday close.

Trends are based on my mechanical trend following system. They are NOT trading recommendations.

Proshares Ultra short TBT – Bearish Engulfing pattern

One of my favorite reversal patterns – Barish Engulfing is in place on Proshares Ultra short TBT ETF chart. Is it time to go long bonds? Maybe if we follow seasonlas but lets wait for more confirmations that bonds sell off is over.

TRENDS – 13 June 2009

Markets pausing after wild ride!!!

Previous trends post

Daily trends are subject of revision on daily basis after market close. Weekly trends are revised on weekly basis after friday close.

Trends are based on my mechanical trend following system. They are NOT trading recommendations.

Bond market cycles

Below is graph of 20 year bond ETF (TLT) as you can see bond market move in cycles as everything in this world .  In my opinion recent sell off appears to be very strong and trend remains to downside.

Anyway if cycle is still valid we will see this cycle low next few weeks or the trend will continue to higher interest rates (lower bond prices).

TRENDS – 01 June 2009

Previous trends post

Daily trends are subject of revision on daily basis after market close. Weekly trends are revised on weekly basis after friday close.

Trends are based on my mechanical trend following system. They are NOT trading recommendations.

S&P 500 – Descending triangle in a making

S&P500 is forming Descending triangle which by definition is a bearish formation. I am not sure whether this one can produce sell off from these levels. My opinion is that technical picture is rather messy here and developed markets now follow Emerging markets (asian ones).  Bonds sell off can explain some recent strength of equities.

Anyway the world now is full of disbalances which are main drivers of trends (medium term trends of S&P is still bullish as shown on graph below) . My advice is to stick to trends and don’t try to overthink the markets.